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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|